Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,870 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,955 yuan/mt and a low of 20,870 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,905 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 1.02%. The trading volume was 44,200 lots, and the open interest was 169,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 2,500 lots. On the previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,576/mt, reached a high of $2,585.5/mt and a low of $2,544/mt, and closed at $2,565/mt, down $21.5/mt, a decrease of 0.83%.
Summary: On the macro front, overseas, since Trump won the election last week, the US dollar index has continued to rise, with the US dollar reaching its highest level in a year, putting continuous pressure on non-ferrous metals. Domestically, the first round of fiscal measures was relatively lower than expected, mainly the 6 trillion yuan incremental debt financing, which may help improve corporate balance sheets and boost employment and income expectations for residents. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum ingot inventory remained below 600,000 mt during the week. Recently, transportation conditions in north-west China have improved, forcing the continuous destocking trend of aluminum ingot inventory to be interrupted, and an inventory inflection point has initially formed. The low inventory support for aluminum futures prices may gradually weaken. Alumina spot supply remains tight, coupled with production cuts and suspensions by some enterprises, but non-ferrous metal agreement holders have voiced concerns over the current significant fluctuations in alumina, leading to a slight retreat in market sentiment and high-level adjustments in alumina prices. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, but the support to aluminum prices has weakened. In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate upward, with continued attention to macro sentiment changes and fluctuations in alumina prices both domestically and internationally.
